Cotton of near future Zheng agreement fell in January the position propping up that cut early days 14700-14800, open another round drop prices, go to the pily prices of the near future situation, the author borrows this to want to share his a few point of views.
It is beautiful cotton market above all. Agreement of main force of market of near future beautiful cotton appears all the time around move 75-80 cent / of the pound so an interval concussion, empty side argument is Sino-US trade war bigger to the sale generation of beautiful cotton impact and be anxious quite to global consumption circumstance, and with all possible means what reason market approbates quite is beautiful cotton grow the condition is poor, gains plan is wrong, predict reduction in production of beautiful this year cotton and later period USDA still can continue possibly to move crop of the cotton that decrease the United States, in addition India raises seed cotton lowest to buy the price considerably this year (MSP) also supported international cotton price. Contrast carefully however analyse these a few elements, beautiful cotton produces per year quantity and quality to although also be a fact,drop considerably today, but the time that acclaims reduction of output predicts to also can last again 9 months, the lowest price of Indian seed cotton buys a system to arrive also is at present did not begin tardy, and although begin to be opposite,the influence of beautiful cotton market also is indirect, relative to character, sino-US trade war just is an influence time is longer, consequence spends bigger factor. We dogged a data, recently 11 weeks (the 5th week - the 15th week) total autograph of American land cotton is made an appointment with the quantity is controlled one hundred and forty-six thousand one hundred tons only, this quantity takes crop of annual beautiful cotton 3.65% (among them China cancels agreement to have ninety thousand six hundred tons) , 2017 this scale is 11.82% , 2016 is 13.16% , 2015 is 10.55% , the influence that it is thus clear that Sino-US trade war exports to beautiful cotton is very big, although the beautiful cotton autograph of newest a week makes an appointment with a circumstance to have bigger improvement, but the condition that we think beautiful cotton sale still is a hardship, later period still needs to pay close attention to this export data. Of course the market still can hold bigger anticipation to the G20 summit that is about to hold, but we are more pessimistic still to the result of the talk, the sale status of beautiful to future cotton also is more pessimistic, and if negotiate to be paid no attention to as a result,think finally, beautiful cotton can drop likely the strong point of broken early days.
Next home market respect. Tell from level of supply and demand, supply upright market at present enough, commercial inventory respect, shed the newest investigation data of branch according to content of Chinese cotton association, gross of inventory of have enough to meet need of cotton of commodity of the whole nation end October makes an appointment with 2.974 million tons, among them inventory of have enough to meet need of cotton of commodity of the storehouse inside Xinjiang area is one million eight hundred and forty-six thousand six hundred tons, comparative in last few years circumstance, no matter commercial inventory still is the commodity cotton inventory inside Xinjiang area,be to be located in in last few years high point. Industrial inventory respect, according to data of Chinese cotton website, up to be sampled to investigate stocks of enterprise cotton industry to be eight hundred and ninety thousand five hundred tons by October, reached peak of nearly 5 years, and still be new flower appears on the market at present fastigium, supply end so market natural resources is very sufficient, spot sale is relatively difficult. And from downstream consumption end looks, the traditional busy season this year not flourishing, have even basic order even drop, to trade war be anxious to make terminal company purchases special discretion, gauze sells difference, inventory increases, partial spin enterprise begins undersell bombazine even, spot price of near future bombazine also is in all the time drop, so from consumption end looks, pily price is obtained hard prop up effectively, we have before say 14700-14800 yuan / ton around be machine a when pick cotton bigger cost strong point, in fact 1901 agreement also are nodded in this have for many times rebound. Respect of merchandise on hand, as a result of before factory of cotton ginning of period of time just began to buy and be sold, financing is relatively abundant, have the desire that hold out valence, so although price of early days futures drops, spot price did not appear big range drops, but the elapse as time, cotton is sold still difficult, pressure of capital of cotton ginning factory is greater and greater, pily merchandise on hand predicts to also will appear one drops, and also can continue to affect futures price conversely.
Finally the influencing factor besides level of supply and demand, the another that Zheng Mian drops is important influencing factor is sheet of many new old warehouse suppress is worn pily futures price. End the warehouse that Zheng Mian already built on November 27 is odd 11230 pieces, effective forecast storehouse is odd 2880 pieces, aggregate amount to is in five hundred and sixty-four thousand four hundred tons into cotton, reached historical peak. The 3 storehouse transfer storage facility of Xinjiang became last year after be library of fiducial complete a business transaction, border inside sheet of the enterprise storehouse that make is more easy, because sheet of many cotton storehouse was produced this last year, zheng Shang is in the foundation last year to went up to increase library of two complete a business transaction in Xinjiang again this year, total library capacity is in many tons 100. In sheet of 11230 pieces of storehouses, sheet of 2017/18 year storehouse is occupied 60% , sheet of 2018/19 year storehouse is occupied 40% , sheet still did not pour out of a large number of old warehouses the market, sheet is building new warehouse in great quantities, this cans be imagined to the pressure of option market. Futures price rises, sell with respect to sheet having a storehouse come in, such generous the storehouse is odd, although capital wants hype very difficult also, so short-term inside pily market has very hard rise prettily prices.
Above is us to future inside and outside of period of time dish a of cotton preliminary forecast, it is from supply and demand main area and storehouse odd level are analysed only of course, however no less than everybody knows, cotton is city of a policy, future also does not eliminate market of meeting occurrence influence to take the policy of situation, do not cast next year for instance store or the country closes store etc have new policy, because we pay close attention to,change to before two years of hair appoint release those who fall one year to cast store policy is controlled November, but still did not see to new now policy this year announce, this also increased us to be opposite of policy uncertainty anxious, because our viewpoint is Zheng Mian the market is short-term in light of slant to go infirmly situation, but also existing the uncertainty of policy.