The “pig cycle” has a lot of controversy on the turning p

  • Dec, 26th 2018

The fluctuation of the “pig cycle” has caused aquaculture companies and people who are concerned about this field to worry. On the one hand, the low-price development that lasts for a long time makes analysts think that the turning point is coming; on the other hand, from the listing According to the company's performance forecast and market participants' observations, the driving force for the increase in pig prices is still lacking.

Checking the November sales table released by aquaculture listed companies, at present, the price decline is still the mainstream "sound". “The decline in sales of pigs is mainly due to the recent embargo on the spread of pigs and pigs in Africa. The number and prices of pigs sold by the company have declined.” In the announcement, a number of companies explained the current transcripts.

This situation has a significant impact on the performance of related companies. Among the listed companies that have released this year's annual performance forecast, the company admits that it is expected that the annual results will drop sharply this year. “Because of the “African swine fever” epidemic, the company’s main producer price of pigs has fallen faster; the affected areas are blocked and embargoed. Influenced by factors, the company's sales volume, price and business were affected in the fourth quarter, which affected the company's profitability."

Zhuo Chuang Information explained in an interview with the Securities Daily that most of the major producing areas are in an orderly manner, and the sales pressure of live pigs is not large. The East China and Central China regions are likely to rise and fall; the bacon and enema needs in the South Smooth recovery, the basic support for pig prices. In the short-term, it is difficult to reduce the price of pork in the area where pork is transferred, while other areas have the supplement of low-priced white strip meat, but the demand is also moderately supported. Zhuo Chuang expects that “the national pig price will rise steadily. In the past week, the volume of Henan’s large-scale field has been large, the overall price of slaughter plants in the Northeast and other places, and the demand in southern China have temporarily fallen, resulting in a slight decline in national pig prices. As of December 19, The average price of ternary foreign exchange was 13.60 yuan/kg, which was 0.44% on a week-on-week basis."

The fluctuations in the price of live pigs have led to the prediction of the industry's “turning point”.

In the recent brokerage research report, there is a research report that the pig cycle is in the stage of accelerating the industry's production capacity, and the logic of the turning point is gradually strengthening. African swine fever has confirmed the elimination trend of production capacity in the main producing areas, and the national pig price turning point is coming soon.

For this argument, the research report believes that it can be analyzed from the historical cycle and other aspects. At present, the loss period of some major producing areas in the industry is close to 8 months, and the number of able-to-feed sows has reached 9.3% since March of this year. From the perspective of profitability, the loss of the national pig breeding industry has reached 4 months before, and The industry in the main producing areas has sustained losses for seven months, and the production capacity is in an accelerated phase of elimination.

However, in the short term, the rise in meat prices still lacks the momentum to support. In the latest research report, the new development forecast, the trend of post-meat price "in general, the stock of pigs is still sufficient, the price does not have the momentum to rise temporarily; the price of white pigs will also be around the current price. Fluctuating for a while."