Corn looked into 2019: Return 2500 yuan / ton not be a dream

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Introduction

Look from historical angle, 10 years ago (namely 2008) , the price of wheat of strong anything resembling a tendon or vein is 2000 yuan / ton, corn price is some lower it is 1800 yuan / ton level, differ 200 yuan / ton. Nowadays, the price of strong wheat from highest 3000 yuan / ton fall after a rise reachs 2600 yuan / ton one belt; And corn present price picks up only reach 1900 yuan / ton a gleam of, differ 700 yuan / ton.

Nowadays, through a few years " go inventory " the strategy, job of Chu Qing warehouse achieves the nation basically, face Chu Yu rice to leave 80 million tons of level only. Accordingly, in crop backwater, below the situation that demand tigidity rises, return of prospective corn price 2500 yuan / ton can anticipate. The earliest time is in probably the wintry time of next year.

One, the reviewing of corn market and current situation

This year of Dalian corn market rising is from April 27 (the index signs up for 1728 yuan / ton) begin, last to the perch September 10 all the time (the index signs up for 1954 yuan / ton) . Rose 226 yuan / ton (+ 13% ) . Subsequently, the market appears those who give strong ABC structure to adjust. Current, those who move is big C billow. The adjustment that estimates C billow will come continuously December the middle ten days of a month.

Can say, this year rise relatively in former years shifts to an earlier date, began from April. Main factor is: 1, afraid corn advocate question of weather yield a division, bring about the fall of crop thereby. 2, to prospective demand hopeful anticipate, because produce,need breach and inventory to drop. 3, foreground of Sino-US trade war is exasperate, bring about substitute (like broomcorn) the entrance decreases.

However, from September begin first, the market enters a new level, appear up to now piece strong adjust position. From the technology character, this is configuration of a relay, belong to labor force, rise for what did not come saving kinetic energy.

The main side that shows level has: 1, problem of delivery of cargo from storage of rice of the Chen Yu after the auction. It is reported, still 20 million tons of corn need delivery of cargo from storage. 2, new corn appears on the market centrally problem. Make work because of farmer cherish and this year climate element, appear on the market this year time delays half many month than last year. 3, question of Sino-US trade war. Whether have a favourable turn, see G20 meeting, and the sincerity that both sides solves a problem before January 1.

Reach with respect to future 2019, of Dalian corn walk along situation general how? Consume busy season as hiemal of in former years, rise can be prices shown as before? "Go inventory " the strategy will still undertake, what is the basis that rose 2019?

2, the core that corn supply side reforms: Go inventory

Corn is the breed of the first first selection that side of supply of our country produce reforms, because its are giant,be hard digestive inventory, domestic storehouse is in basically bilge library condition. It is reported, auctioned eve 2016, face only store inventory has 258 million tons, enough consumption of a year.

Visible, go the core task that inventory is reform of corn supply side. For this, our country Ministry of Agriculture is to corn strategy shift: Guide farmer to cut down corn to grow an area.

The historical data from USDA and watch 1 look, it is before 2016, our country corn sows an area to ever appeared to grow 13 years continuously, the area grew 27% .

However, begin from 2016, corn cultivated an area to appear to drop, dropped 2.8% , for 36.76 million hectare. Namely from this year September (autumn harvest) begin, corn market appears invert, entered ascendant cycle. Corn sowed an area to drop again 2017 3.5% , for 35.45 million hectare. Of the same age at the beginning of November, below the drive of winter busy season, dalian corn appeared one wavelengh amounts to 2 many months (the top sees at the beginning of January 2018) rise prices. 2018, of our country corn cultivate an area to be 36.5 million hectare, add 1.05 million hectare slightly, increased 2.9% . The area is added slightly basically is to go up corn cultivates year of farmer benefit is better cause, and national strategy intent does not have a change. As a result of this year climate not beautiful, corn crop falls somewhat instead. From this year the bottom arrived in April at the beginning of September, corn anticipates in reduction of output wait for an element to facilitate below walked out of to rise prices.

It is reported, heilongjiang province fell considerably to the allowance of corn producer 2018 reach 25 yuan / mu; And, predict this allowance will be cancelled 2019. Look so, the government is hope farmer as before reduce corn grow an area, and production of soybean of patulous this locality.

With what cultivate area backwater correspondence be: In recent years consumption of our country corn presents a state that adds steadily, make thereby stock year after year drops.

Now, let us look " face store inventory " evolve: Before Chu Yu rice auctioned the country 2016, face quantity of Chu Yu rice to be 258 million tons. In those days, corn accumulative total auctioned 22 million tons, country of the end of the year store stock falls reach 236 million tons. 2017, country store auctioned again face Chu Yu rice 57 million tons, stock of the end of the year falls reach 179 million tons. 2018, chu Chao expects the nation the ground auctioned 100 million tons, face store stock falls to 80 million tons of levels. To this, professional personage exclamations: Country " go inventory " the strategy is finished basically.

Present problem is: If continue to undertake auctioning by the rate this year next year, so, country store the normal requirement that will not satisfy the market!

Accordingly, must complement from inside the market inventory. On real issue, in store grain near future buys a dot to purchase new corn in what differ all the time. This also is corn spots persists one of strong reasons. According to national commissariat and statistic of corporeal reserve bureau, end on November 15, shandong, Heilongjiang 11 advocate accumulative total yield a division buys corn 16.73 million tons, reduce 1.26 million tons compared to the same period. Because farmer cherish makes work this year, a large number of receiving store not be an easy thing.

3, USDA report unscrambled in November: Chinese corn equilibrium of supply and demand is expressed

In unscramble before USDA reported November, need does a special specification. The corn data as a result of Chinese statistic bureau (2007 to 2017) did major shift to rectify, the corn data that brings about USDA also is adjusted subsequently. Although the change of historical data (crop, consumption, inventory) ought not to meet those who affect the market go situation; But, still arose to slant to be affected for nothing, brought about the adjustment of Dalian corn market. The change of specific data, can consult Chinese corn balances a watch 2.

From theoretic say, balancing watch data was in the past when, adjust won't affect mix now future, change the trend that cannot change to did not come. But the market psychology that can affect instantly. Unscramble balance watch from two respects below.

From inventory / consumption looks than incline to: With respect to produce character, inventory / consumptive comparing is to grind the main index that sentences price trend. Normally, inventory / consumption compares occurrence peak value, and abduct head is down; So, this is the changeover signal with main market, show the market breaks away from Xiong Fu, transform gradually it is ascendant cycle.

From inside historical data, we are informed: 2015/16 year, stockpile of our country corn / consumptive comparing reached a peak value. Subsequently, 2016/17 year inventory / spending falls than appearing, for 87% . Such, brought about Dalian corn to be in directly sole inverted on September 30, 2016, go up situation present two stronger rise, appeared 2017 finally on March 28 adjust. 2017/18 year inventory / consumption glides than continueing, fall to 84% . Such, on October 30, 2017, dalian corn appeared driving seasonal rise, go up situation continuance comes 2018 on January 5.

According to USDA is newest November forecast: Stockpile of corn of 2018/19 year our country / consumptive comparing will continue fall after a rise comes 75% . This shows, inventory / the further fall after a rise that consumption compares, be this year corn rise lay a foundation. Rising is as before advocate trend.

From crop and demand two respects data looks: Analyse yield data first. Reform of side of supply of our country agriculture is forerunner with corn, encourage plant the crop with the bigger gap such as soja. Such, in last few years corn sows an area to did not resemble going in that way in successive years grows, however backwater not before. Its crop also is such.

From USDA newest data looks, it is two hundred and sixty-three million six hundred and ten thousand tons from the crop of 2016/17 year corn; 2017/18 year dropped 4.54 million tons are two hundred and fifty-nine million and seventy thousand tons; 2018/19 year crop falls once more 3.07 million tons are 256 million tons. Visible, corn " supply side is reformed " the effect is remarkable, crop backwater is " go inventory " laid strategic foundation.

Analyse consumptive data again: Look from historical data, come from 2005/06 year 2018/19 year, in all in 13 year, besides 2014/15 year spending falls slightly outside (corn dropped greatly 2015) , consume every year all manage growth position, even if is in 2008 among financial crisis. Visible, the rigid growth that corn consumes is as vivid as person the people's livelihood quality raise be be closely bound up.

From the watch 2 look, corn of 2016/17 year our country consumes gross to be 255 million tons; 2017/18 year grew 8 million tons to be 263 million tons; 2018/19 year grew 13 million tons to be 276 million tons again.

This shows, crop backwater, and the constant growth of consumption, bring about the gap that produces inadequacy to need to expand necessarily, make thereby stock year after year drops. According to USDA reported in November, crop of corn of 2018/19 year China 256 million tons (compared to the same period - 1.1% ) , total consumption 276 million tons (than going up year + 4.7% ) . Produce require separation 20 million tons, period end stock falls reach 207 million tons.

Here, still want special specification: USDA adjusts data this to exist to move toward another extreme from an extreme likely. For example, beforehand the period end inventory of corn of China of appraise 2018/19 year is 207 million tons. Instantly, country store there still is stock of 80 million tons of old corns in the hand. If continue to auction next year,give 100 million tons, so, chinese inventory comes to still have 200 million tons how possibly Summer 2019! So, the key still should see the incorporate of spot market; Namely: Is supply insecurity denied? Is farmer cherish carry out denied?

4, the ascendant contrail that seeks future from inside historical rule and experience

Look from historical angle, 10 years ago (namely 2008) , the price of wheat of strong anything resembling a tendon or vein is 2000 yuan / ton, corn price is some lower it is 1800 yuan / ton level, differ 200 yuan / ton. Nowadays, the price of strong wheat from highest 3000 yuan / ton fall after a rise reachs 2600 yuan / ton one belt; And corn present price picks up only reach 1900 yuan / ton a gleam of, differ 700 yuan / ton.

Be what reason causes corn from 2015 2500 yuan of summit summit / ton does fall after a rise come by the cereal 2016 1400 yuan / ton? Because countrywide inventory all is in,be bilge library condition, the country is bought no longer, return at commercializing management.

Nowadays, through a few years " go inventory " the strategy, job of Chu Qing warehouse achieves the nation basically, face Chu Yu rice to leave 80 million tons of level only.

Accordingly, in crop backwater, below the situation that demand tigidity rises, return of prospective corn price 2500 yuan / ton can anticipate. The earliest time is in probably the wintry time of next year.

From corn sale rule looks, have height receiving food 3 times toward annual meeting. Was September new corn appears on the market earlier; It is nature of new corn of Spring Festival around the 2nd after airing; It is the 3rd annual 5, before wheat appeared on the market June. Look with respect to experience, receive grain height the 2nd times to often accompanying winter to consume busy season, the price is given priority to basically with rising, slant in supply and demand especially below strict state.

now, dalian corn ever had to rise April prices, basically weather and person energy of life facilitate; Instantly is undertaking ABC is adjusted in, because new corn appears on the market,wait. Press rule of in former years, the last ten-day of a month in December, corn consumption busy season will come gradually, market hopeful is being purchased and rise once more below drive of consumptive double round, go up situation general lasts to next year March.