Since mid-October, China's vegetable market futures and spot prices have seen continuous decline. On the one hand, Sino-US trade eases the fall in soybean meal prices, and on the other hand, the demand for rapeseed is weakened. In addition, in order to actively expand imports, the State Council Customs Tariff Commission has issued a provisional tax rate on imports of more than 700 items since January 1, 2019, including miscellaneous meal, cotton aphid, peanut meal, sunflower stalk, palm scorpion and other miscellaneous scorpions. The tax rate has dropped from 5% to 0. The news mainly has a negative impact on domestic cockroaches in two aspects. First, the direct decline in import costs caused by tax rates. Second, the import volume is expected to increase, and the tax rate will fall.
I. Sino-US trade friction mitigation
Before the G20 summit, the market expects that Sino-US trade friction will be eased, and the bearishness will be revealed in advance on the disk. The results of the first meeting of the US dollar in the G20 summit were indeed as expected by the market, and the domestic turmoil futures oscillated and adjusted. China and the United States mentioned in the first meeting that China will import a large amount of agricultural products from the United States and re-import US soybeans in mid-December. China has bought US soybeans in two orders. In mid-December, the number of purchases was 1.561 million tons, and last week it bought 1.2 million tons. According to the news, China will soon carry out the third round of US soybean procurement, the number is roughly 2 million tons. Affected by this, the trend of domestic cockroaches is weakening, and the upward momentum is insufficient.
Second, demand slowdown
Domestic mites are mainly for consumption. In terms of pigs, last week in Chongqing’s Laoshan District, Xiangzhou District of Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, Youxi County of Fujian Province, and Longli County of Gannan Province of Guizhou Province, a case of swine fever was detected in each row, of which Guangdong was the first case, and Fujian epidemic farm The scale is nearly 12,000 heads. Up to now, there have been 100 cases of African swine fever, involving 4 municipalities in 19 provinces, killing more than 631,000 heads. The swine fever epidemic is still spreading, and there are cases of large-scale farms, which cause the farmers to be less motivated, and the reduction in feed demand tends to weaken the consumption of alfalfa. In addition, rapeseed meal is mainly used for aquaculture consumption. Since October, the weather has turned cold. China's aquaculture has also entered the off-season, and the reduction in demand for aquatic feed has also created a negative for the price of rapeseed.
Three, actively importing chowder
In order to ease the singularity, this year China has also actively released the import of miscellaneous goods. On October 22, 2018, the General Administration of Customs issued a notice saying that it is allowed to import Indian rapeseed meal that meets the requirements. Indian food crickets began to re-enter China after a seven-year import ban. On December 22, 2018, the State Council announced that from January 1, 2019, it will impose a provisional tax rate on imports of more than 700 items, including the tax rates of rapeseed meal, cotton aphid, peanut meal, sunflower vine, palm pupa, etc. 5% fell to zero. The policy of actively importing clams will make the price of clams in China weak.
Overall, the current negative factors in the domestic apes are in line, and these negative factors are sustainable. If China imports more US soybean imports or imports a large amount of miscellaneous clams, the vegetable chop contract still has room to fall. In the near future, it is expected that the clams will remain weak and adjust their thinking.