Was about to enter end 2018, to cotton, walk along with one climax following another of situation it may be said one this year. In concussion dish after rectifying two years, cotton is in this year in May, have the aid of is anxious to Xinjiang weather this one east wind, price rise steeply rushs to reach 19000 yuan high / ton. The later period that the market worries about is supplied and do not have occurrence problem however, domestic output if anticipate,did not glide substantially commonly. Ferment as the abidance of trade controversial issue at the same time, the impact that although pily itself suffers,arrives is not big, but degree of integral market boom is attacked by tremendous favorable opposition, mood whole is pessimistic. The whole of benefit sky is short of break add not the industrial foreground of beautiful, make pily prices whole depressed. Thereby ecbolic June up to now a slow dropping prices. Cotton florescence price experienced brief " switchback " after prices, returned the beginning of the year afresh again in the end of the year 15000 yuan / ton platform.
After new October cotton appears on the market in great quantities, domestic cotton price blazes new trails repeatedly low, cotton city cold wind still is being blown in fiercely. On period city, arrive from last week this week, zheng Mian also was greeted 7 even shade. But 3 trade recently the small positive line of day, had it seems that stop drop the state with certain look forward to. Now Zheng cotton brunt 1905 contract are early dish appear to drop, concussion goes up afternoon, the newspaper receives 15105 yuan / ton, drop 0.2% , clinch a deal 102 thousand hand, maintain a warehouse 290 thousand hand.
From at present domestic condition looks, the letter amounts to futures produce Zhang Xiufeng analyses senior researcher, 18/19 year pily crop is stabler still, beforehand appraise 5.27 million tons, import volume promotes small compared to the same period, amount to 1.5 million tons. In the meantime, overall wastage is 8.7 million tons, inventory predicts from period 6.18 million tons first drop 4.25 million tons, inventory consumption is compared predict 48% the left and right sides, be close to 09/10 year level. Look from data, of these a few years of cotton go inventory is fruitful, in the meantime, inferior inventory also was offerred for pily prices prop up necessarily. "But we think short-term inside, rely on inventory only inferior, cotton still does not have the requirement that rise, below the setting that chafes in Sino-US commerce, demand promotion is slow it is core element. Cotton may be remained 2019 slant to go infirmly situation, but the fall as inventory, bottom also is met solidder and solidder. Bottom also is met solidder and solidder..
In addition, when in Zheng cotton drops continuously, also appear external dish with drop not to follow the case that go up. The exit that USDA announces before this sells a report to show, end to was become on November 15, exit of American 2018/19 cotton sells 210500 packets completely; Exit of 2019/20 year cotton sells 31700 packets completely, the market worries about beautiful cotton relatively or continue be issued to lower levels of cotton of Zheng of be a burden on. Dan Zhangxiu peak expresses, although at present beautiful cotton exports data at present not beautiful, the problem with explain demand appeared particular. The likelihood has Chinese factor inside this, theoretic also meet be a burden on arrives Zheng Mian. But below actual condition, pily inside and outside dish opposite for zoology is more independent, as a result of pily imports and exports the canal accuses to spend taller, near future home market walks along situation photograph to fluctuate than beautiful cotton small, more stable also.
"Short-term in light of, what the market cares most still is G20 peak whether can the result of meeting of leader of can Sino-US two countries give whole capital market to bring good news. Although cotton is basic the promotion of the face may be more finite, but market wall bagger attends a meeting to give infuse of whole commodity market energy. " Zhang Xiufeng expresses.
And look for a long time from which, he thinks cotton may enter to build bottom period, drop ceaselessly in inventory, if appear the height of demand, may bring to rise to cotton big prices. The core element that future pays close attention to is the progress that Sino-US commerce chafes above all, the fall that is pily inventory next circumstance, finally is market terminal whether have big demand.
The letter amounts to futures produce senior researcher Zhang Xiufeng
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