At present main area still maintains Shanghai glue weak force. Although Shanghai glue period present price difference shrinks narrow make short-term rebounding probability increases, but up the space is limited. Be in the rear of prices, the main show form that weak force drops is price of Shanghai glue later period. Of main area turn round thoroughly still need longer time. On the operation, area of proposal union technology is searched meet cast empty entrance high to nod, do not chase after much or chase after empty.
Flourishing produces aggravate of pressure of season arrival supply
According to ANRPC report, 2018 1, output of global day glue grew 1.5% to reach 9.779 million tons compared to the same period in September. This year glue price lasts low below confused condition, the initiative that day glue produces is hit certainly pressure. Early days suffers the adverse weather influence such as such as strong rainfall, flood and typhoon to cause number of rubber tapping day to decrease, day glue output restrained on certain level grow considerably. From the point of another angle, in rubber tapping enthusiasm is reduced and adverse weather influence falls, the day glue crop of before this year 9 months still can obtain small growth, visible eye is produced of glue potentially the day before yesterday can still relatively abundant.
Although home produces an area to will be entered stage by stage after November,stop cut period, but it is southeast Asia however advocate the manufacturing busy season of glue of day yield a country. Especially precipitation of early days monsoon is more, the anticipation that the crop after entering flourishing to produce season releases in great quantities is opposite stronger, flourishing produces the arrival of season to will give supply end to bring new pressure. ANRPC predicts, crop of global day glue was added 2018 fast will put delay than 2017, crop of global day glue predicted to be thirteen million eight hundred and fifty-one thousand tons 2018, compare 13.35 million tons of 2017 to still have 3.7% add fast space.
Inventory maintains perch as before
At present of Shanghai glue period present price difference narrows considerably, the atrophy of the space that cover interest reduced the driving force that day glue imports on certain level. According to the data that custom publishs, the accumulative total of natural balata of country of before this year 10 the middle of a month and synthetic rubber imports a quantity to be five million six hundred and sixty-eight thousand four hundred tons, with five million six hundred and forty-five thousand two hundred tons of photograph comparing of the corresponding period grew 0.41% last year. From advocate of production yield a country and exit seasonal in light of, predicting the four seasons spends domestic balata to import a quantity to still can continue to climb litre, the import volume of annual will be mixed equal 2017.
Do not see in the entrance the circumstance that drop falls, the inventory pressure of middle reaches also is in perch continuously. Before cut solstice, stock of balata of Qingdao free tax zone falls reach more than tons 110 thousand, descendent main reason is the change of the new delimit of storehouse of free tax zone and statistical data caliber. On total reserve of period place futures still has five hundred and eighty-three thousand two hundred tons, the storehouse drops sheet is little reach more than tons 490 thousand, the fall of storehouse only stock is main with complete a business transaction of agreement drawing near was concerned in November. Downstream demand is at present gently, the factory is maintained just needed to purchase, pressure of later period inventory will still last.
Downstream demand domestic trouble and foreign invasion
According to the report that meets by couplet, industry of our country automobile is already successive since July 3 months compared to the same period sales volume glides, predict home dropped by sales volume of the whole that use a car in October will achieve 20% the left and right sides, annual car predicted sales volume makes an appointment with 28.2 million 2018, drop compared to the same period 2% , car city appeared 2018 negative growth is already inevitable. Block demand side again, market of serious in October check adds up to sell of all kinds model 79 thousand, annulus rises than September 2% , but bigger than getting on ninety-two thousand three hundred of year of the corresponding period to appear glide. The macroscopical data that publishs from the near future shows, suffer the be a burden on that real estate of be confined to and capital construction investment glide, add the effect of highway freightage policy, the demand of downstream whole still has weak trend.
Need to glide inside while, of tire outside also not allow below the influence that needs exit to chafe in commerce hopeful. 1, the volume of accumulative total export of Chinese balata tire was three hundred and sixty-four million three hundred and ninety thousand in September, accumulative total grows 1.6% only compared to the same period, 1, volume of export of balata tire accumulative total appeared August of 0.3% glide. The United States before this is special what bright general government announces pair of China is new round of custom duty, custom duty covered directory of product of all balata tire almost, certainly will causes negative effect to be defeated by United States tire. As Euramerican trade barrier taller and taller, the country such as European Union, Brazil, India also is initiated to Chinese tire in succession turn over a dumping to investigate, trade friction as one falls, the demand of balata tire is faced with domestic trouble and foreign invasion.
At present main area still maintains Shanghai glue weak force, although period present price difference shrinks narrow with implicit value low make short-term rebounding probability increases, but this returns what can't form prices changeover to prop up, whole up the space is limited.
(writer unit: Country trade futures)