Requirement of deep treatment field restores, although together with country cancels to close store but reform of executive supply side, corn cultivates an area to begin cut, 2016/2017 year supplies occurrence breach, corn price sets foot on the road that rise. From main area analysis, this situation will still continue.
A dish side stage moving feature is bright
2004, 2011, belong to benign oscillation basically to rise, meantime only financial crisis was adjusted apparently too from time to tome 2008. Demand of this main profit from is pulled move, economy is overall to good and ecbolic demand anticipates concept of biology the sources of energy.
2011, 2015, exalted oscillation is given priority to, because right now biology the sources of energy develops burnout, corn demand lacks new point of growth, need for be more than, and to protect farmer income, the government is passed close store prompt demand once more, passivity of supply and demand achieves a balance.
Price perch moves, corn cultivates sexual price to compare on the high side, farmer continues enlarge is planted, such, closing for be more than needed contradiction store covering next aggravate, final result is a country store accumulate a day to estimate reserve.
2015, close store cancel, plus concussion of foreign low substitute, type of corn price occurrence bluff drops, return once more 2008, the level 2009.
The price drops prompt demand especially the refreshment of requirement of deep treatment field, although cancel,close plus the country store but develop supply side innovation, corn cultivates an area to begin cut, 2016/2017 year supplies breach to appear, corn price sets foot on the road that rise. From main area analysis, this posture will still last.
The scheme leaves for active even corn contract situation
B market begins to drain reserve effectively
Each orgnaization is consistent to offerring what should contract to anticipate
The numerous and complicated of watch of domestic corn balance that each orgnaization releases inside course of study is mixed and disorderly, but trend of supply and demand agrees basically. According to the view of the orgnaization, crop of our country corn decreases ceaselessly from 2016/2017 year, demand increases ceaselessly from 2015/2016 year, produce need to present price scissors, 2017/2018 year supplies occurrence breach, the giant country that accumulates before store inventory begins to be used up.
American Ministry of Agriculture appears to our country the anticipation that supplies breach wants early a year. American Ministry of Agriculture predicts, market of our country corn is faced with from 2016/17 year supply shortage risk.
Main difference depends on domestic orgnaization and American Ministry of Agriculture differring to the judgement of demand. American Ministry of Agriculture anticipates to consumption of our country corn relatively hopeful, and the anticipation of domestic orgnaization is general a few lower. Carry give evidence of other trade data, the author more Ministry of Agriculture of apt United States is right of our country demand beforehand appraise.
2016, crop of domestic formula feed is eighteen thousand four hundred tons, corn adds scale to be calculated according to the floor level of 55% , corn consumption is 101 million tons. Additional, still have a share from burden. The quantity from burden is OK by condense makings will limit. According to the data of feed industry association, 2016, condense makings crop to be 18.42 million tons (condense expect bases is microelement, amino acid and albumen) , crop of amount to formula feed is 73.68 million tons, namely corn consumption is 55.26 million tons. In those days, corn feed consumption is total be in 156 million tons, use plus deep treatment, kind use and edible, total demand is in 212.8 million tons. American Ministry of Agriculture predicts, 2015/2016 year, demand of our country corn is 217.5 million tons.
2015/2016 year, crop of our country corn is 220 million tons, produce need wide balance, and 2016/2017 year, crop continues to drop, feed demand increases somewhat however, so that appear,supply breach, the market is entered effectively go in inventory mode. Current, had been to supply the 4th year when tighten up, as to supply breach to have how old, inventory level how, can pass pat store data looks clear.
Cast store consumption of the inventory below the perspective is compared drop
2016/2017 year, corn market appears supply breach. In May 2017, chu Yu rice begins the country auction, accumulative total clinchs a deal 59 million tons. Harvest Ji Yu in those days rice annulus enters 20 million tons, lead computation according to the delivery of cargo from storage of 75% , channel inventory is in 15 million tons, cast store in the process increase 24 million tons actually to fill opening of fill a vacancy. From in those days spot price is in cast Chu Chuang buccal period 5, in light of the sale price basic stability September, market supply and demand is in balance position during the auction. From this preliminary think, market of 2016/2017 year corn supplies breach to be in 24 million tons roughly. When year ends, country store inventory is 179 million tons, channel inventory is 15 million tons, haven inventory is 4 million tons, period end inventory is 198 million tons, inventory consumption is compared for 85% .
The corn that began 2017/2018 year in April 2018 is cast store. Up to now, accumulative total clinchs a deal 95.3 million tons. Lead computation according to the delivery of cargo from storage of 70% , cast store the amount that increases actually is 70 million tons. In the meantime, channel inventory predicts to increase 5 million tons, reach 28 million tons; Haven inventory predicts to increase 1 million tons, reach 5 million tons, actual breach is as high as 61 million tons. This and produce actually require data basic be identical.
2017/2018 year, domestic corn crop predicts 15 million tons to drop, and demand predicts to increase 20 million tons. Among them, feed demand increment is in 12.5 million tons, 7.5 million tons are returned to to be replaced wheatenly, 5 million tons are feed normal increment, 7.5 million tons are deep treatment increment (alcohol 2 million tons, amylaceous 5 million tons) . Visible, the supply of 2017/2018 year breach relatively 2016/2017 year enlarges 35 million tons further, achieve 59 million tons, accord with basically also cast store calculated breach.
Country store inventory continues to digest, when ending up to 2017/2018 year, country store inventory the rest is measured predict to be 83.33 million tons. Increase on 25 million tons channel reserve, plus 5 million tons haven inventory, when 2017/2018 year ends, total of period end reserve 113 million tons, inventory consumption comes than falling 47% .
Enter 2018/2019 year, domestic corn crop predicts to increase somewhat, be in 225 million, 230 million tons, demand predicts to be in 250 million, 255 million tons, supply breach to be 25 million tons. When year ends, by the country store inventory is used up reach 58.33 million tons, channel inventory still is 25 million tons, haven inventory maintains 5 million tons of computation, period end inventory is 88.33 million tons, inventory consumption comes than dropping 35% . Corn market supplies hasten to tighten anticipate apparent, the price is put in the foundation that trend sex rises.
C country store grain and make take turns go into work newly
Show level, corn market supplies a source basically is to cast store, new food and entrance. Below setting of friction of Sino-US classics trade, entrance passageway is shut basically, cast store in October the bottom ends, the market enters new food dominant period, supply level comfortable, price existence is seasonal adjust anticipate, but the space is relatively limited.
Cast store during clinch a deal to be stabilized basically
The country faced Chu Yu rice to auction a sale to start on April 12, chu Yu rice becomes the country to basically supply a source. Originally every week 7 million tons put in a quantity, enter raise the quota went to 8 million tons in May, what 8 million tons maintain all the time later is tall put in a quantity. Up to cast by October store end, cast store accumulative total clinchs a deal 95.38 million tons, supply effectively by 78 into computation, also have about 70 million tons. 4, in October, the volume of import of food grains other than wheat and rice such as corn is calculated by 10 million tons (up to 7 million tons are by July) , commercial inventory presses 30 million tons of computation, market total supply is 110 million tons, and quantity of total demand also is in 110 million, 120 million tons, overall supply and demand tightens a balance. Corresponding, 4, in October, corn price is in 1750, 1950 yuan / ton slant strong oscillation.
Additional, from cast store clinch a deal the guiding of quantity, price to the market in light of the gender, cast store during clinch a deal to be stabilized basically, overall pattern of the raise after appearing to or first, flank evidence cast store during supply and demand is relatively balanced and the state that supplies insecurity of in a way. Theoretic, corn price should slant inside interval strong oscillation. Cast store after the end, the market enters phase of new food dominant.
The price is seasonal during new corn appears on the market fall after a rise
New corn of observation past years appears on the market the price of around goes situation is OK discovery, normally, corn price will be seasonal fall after a rise, space of be issued to lower levels is in 60, 300 yuan / ton.
In main area exhausted weak 2015, 2016, range of fall after a rise is bigger, it is 330 yuan respectively / ton mix 170 yuan / ton, and a bit good in main area 2017, extent of fall after a rise is 60 yuan / ton. Mixed 2018 the case 2017 is similar, level is supplied comfortable, assume extent of fall after a rise of merchandise on hand also was in 60 yuan 2018 / ton, period present price difference also can go low, space of be issued to lower levels also is mixed consistent 2017, be in 150 yuan / ton.
Integrated above, corn was in 210 yuan between next line space of agreement in January / ton, early days ever achieved 1940 yuan bit higher / ton, extensive ground is preliminary judgement, agreement was in in January 1730, 1750 yuan / ton existence is propped up effectively.
The graph is corn price preliminary limit
Consumption of D downstream tigidity nots allow to ignore
2018/2019 year, corn consumes increment to did not magnify apparently, but overall still put tigidity to prop up.
Feed breeds end: Egg chicken breeds cycle weak point, quantitative change of year memory column is moved predict not quite; Produce as live pig can go out clear stage by stage, yield pressure whole is in cut, the market already was entered pick up in cycle, but produce in this round of cycle can go out clear to be changed in epidemic situation of African swine fever and dimensions appeal to beg next is destined won't one pace reachs the designated position. If be being limitted from time, to 2019 first quarter, the setting that reachs area of epidemic disease of swine fever block is driven to fall in usury embellish, quantity of live pig amount of livestock on hand and quantum of output still have increase anticipate, later the fall after a rise as pig price, breed profit to glide quickly, push movables to be able to be in 23 quarters produced clear quickly 2019, again later pig price make one's bow rises periodic, quantity of amount of livestock on hand is benign increase, demand anticipates once more to good. Pure from terminal breed aquatics quantitative change of amount of livestock on hand is moved look, feed demand does not have big point of growth.
Nevertheless, via trade attrition setting falls, the propulsion of recipe of low albumen ration may covert demand of the corn that prop up, although strength is not great. Practice the word of low albumen ration, according to at present scientific research achievement of home, albumen scale is reduced 2% , can not affect makings flesh to compare, but can carry brace up corn feed is consumed 3% , 4% , consume 140 million tons of computation by domestic corn feed, corn consumption will increase about 5 million tons.
Replace sexual consideration from diet, current, syncretic of wheaten etc coarse food grain is not had replace an advantage, appear replace need time of half an year at least. In addition, current, entrance passageway is shut, raise corn requirement secondhand 7.5 million tons.
Deep treatment carries: End of corn deep treatment includes starch and alcohol, among them consumption of jade rice starch is occupied 67% , alcohol consumption is occupied 33% . In recent years, go in corn inventory and profit of deep treatment industry fall to good background, starch of our country corn and alcohol are produced can grow continuously. Up to 2017 the end of the year, corn starch is produced can increase 5 million tons, start working is led according to 70% computation, crop of jade rice starch increases 3.5 million tons, make then corn consumption increased 5 million tons 2018. Nevertheless, corn starch was produced 2019 can amplitude predicts finite, because produce can already taller, and demand does not have new point of growth, consumptive amplitude puts delay. In recent years, demand of jade rice starch increases those who come from a few respects to drive: It is consumption upgrades; 2 it is with other substitute photograph comparing has price advantage. Current, the phenomenon that consumption upgrades still is put, but compare with other substitute, price advantage no longer, this part increment cannot last.
Show level, market of jade rice starch is in balance position basically, produce can farther promotion to lack power. According to the world barn predict, 2018/2019 year, crop of jade rice starch increases 4.2 million tons compared to the same period, consumption increases 4.29 million tons compared to the same period, crop and consumption amplitude relatively 2017/2018 year drops somewhat, 2017/2018 year crop and consumption increase 5 million tons compared to the same period.
On alcohol market, 2018, corn of deep treatment domain adds consumption newly to predict to be in 7 million, 8 million tons, with kept balance 2017.
What from deep treatment the industry moves is seasonal in light of the characteristic, amylaceous treatment profit is good, be in all the time since June climb litre, be in overall profit condition at present. Among them, profit of Shandong area treatment is in 82 yuan / ton, jilin is in 183 yuan / ton. Meanwhile, stock falls stage by stage from June, had been in inside year low. Usury embellish small stock is pushed litre switch on the mobile phone rate, switched on the mobile phone in August rate begin to pick up, at present this posture still is in continuously. Additional, enterprise of wine finish machining also is this rhythm, demand busy season comes, increase gradually to the demand of corn.
E is long term price existence rises foundation
2016/2017 year, market of our country corn begins to appear supply breach, the market is entered go inventory level, to 2018/2019 year, supply breach to predict to be 25 million tons. Inventory is used up through lasting, inventory consumption comes than dropping 35% , for since 1992 low. Supply hasten tight situation is apparent, long term see corn price existence rise foundation.
But at present level, cast store supply with new food relay, market supply of goods is relatively enough, one's style of work as well as one's moral quality of predicting corn price is whole move. Cast store end clinchs a deal rate glide, demonstrative demand is exhausted weak. Enter October, new food appears on the market in succession, price existence is seasonal fall after a rise anticipates. The moving rule according to in former years, base poor fluctuant condition, the main area trend with current recombine, agreement low predicted corn in January in 1730, 1750 yuan / ton. The basis breeds profit and circumstance of amount of livestock on hand downstream, next year just needed to still be put before first quarter, and the demand of deep treatment domain also is restoring. So, after new food appears on the market in succession, demand end is propped up gradual, under play chess of price scissors rich, end of corn market hopeful is adjusted, enter once more rise in the trend.
(writer unit: Yuan of state is joined in)
The graph is compared for consumption of stockpile of our country corn situation
The graph is Heilongjiang country price of volume of usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price of Chu Yu rice goes situation
The graph is inside price of volume of usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price of Chu Yu rice visits country of distant auspicious area situation
The graph is corn period present price to be differred situation