Suffer alleviation of Sino-US trade friction to expect an impact, already slanted originally weak rape oil futures is defeated again drop, brunt agreement brushs the low inside New Year ceaselessly. The city after looking into, beautiful beans bumper harvest appears on the market, south-American soja sows plan faster, legume market window shows hard, the oil that home includes rape oil inside is supplied very abundant, but demand not flourishing, futures of material rape oil will still slant to move infirmly.
Main area benefit looks for legume much harder
Market of legume of near future international is enveloped by heavy interest empty dark clouds. At present results has been close to beautiful beans end, because harvest weather of later period occurrence overcast and rainy, beautiful beans crop anticipates not as good as, american Ministry of Agriculture is in the reports of 4 monthly supply and demand that publish are moved substantially last week low beautiful beans per unit area yield and always produce. Even if is such, because Sino-US trade friction still did not alleviate and Chinese government adopted a series of policy that reduce soja consumption, american Ministry of Agriculture is relatively pessimistic to beautiful beans exit, also move substantially low beautiful beans exit, bring about 2017/2018 year beauty inventory of fabaceous period end is increased to come considerably historical record level. In light of whole, this report neutral slants empty. In South America, soja exports faster, price taller, stimulate fabaceous farming to sow soja quickly, soja of consummate week Brazil sows cut plan exceeds 60% , for historical the corresponding period the fastest. Play a period of ten years in one's age of the middle of a month, brazilian precocity soja can appear on the market, space of market of beautiful beans of race to control, beans giving the beauty exports phasic one disaster after another.
Additional, because supply,increase to put delay with demand, international crude price from October first since drop continuously, nearly 8 months come to refresh low. The case of plant oil price that has biology derv idea subsequently low go, beautiful soya-bean oil is ceaseless be issued to lower levels, oily refresh of Ma Panzong Lv comes nearly 3 years low.
Rape oil and relevant grease are supplied abundant
Although the government is faced store rape oil undersell ends, but at present domestic grease is supplied unusually abundant, it is on one hand face as a result of what early days clinchs a deal store rape oil had be notted digest completely; Because early days dregses of rice,be on the other hand kind of price is higher, oily factory compresses profit is better, rate of oily plant go into operation is high, oil output is big, in demand relatively smooth circumstance falls, oil reserve is accumulated ceaselessly. According to monitoring, up to on November 9, gross of inventory of commerce of domestic soya-bean oil is one million eight hundred and thirty-eight thousand seven hundred tons, relatively get on 1.74 million tons of lunar the corresponding period to increase ninety-eight thousand seven hundred tons, amplitude is 5.67% ; Relatively 1.603 million tons of the corresponding period increased two hundred and thirty-five thousand seven hundred tons last year, amplitude is 14.7% , for historical the corresponding period top level. Up to on November 9, hua Na area (two wide, Fujian) inventory of oily factory rape oil is 154 thousand tons, zhou Huan comparing increases 700 tons, relatively 98 thousand tons of the corresponding period increased last year 27.4% , for historical the corresponding period top level. Inventory of rape oil of Hua Dong area is 390 thousand tons, zhou Huan comparing increases eighteen thousand five hundred tons, near historical record.
Additional, because import rapeseed to be measured to harbor bigger, together with oily factory still has treatment profit, colza of this week oily factory compresses the quantity will continue increase. According to predicting this week is mixed next week rapeseed of coastal oil factory compresses the quantity will increase to 132 thousand tons to mix 142 thousand tons respectively, ceaseless refresh is coastal oily factory rapeseed compresses historical record. Accordingly, rape oil quantum of output will increase subsequently.
Rape oil demand lasts not flourishing
Early days fears as a result of the market Sino-US trade friction can cause domestic grease oil plants to supply occurrence shortage, downstream terminal is active replenish onr's stock, established certain reserve. As Sino-US and bilateral active contact, evidence of trade friction occurrence alleviation, rape oil price pours fast fall after a rise. Suffer buy go up to be not bought fall psychological influence, requirement of reserve of together with early days is digested, rape oil of near future oily factory clinchs a deal, shipment condition is poorer. According to monitoring, up to became on November 9, rape oil of coastal oil factory clinchs a deal the quantity is seventeen thousand four hundred tons only, relatively before twenty-eight thousand nine hundred tons of week reduce eleven thousand five hundred tons, fall for 39.8% , for successive the 2nd week drops.
The place on put together is narrated, beautiful beans bumper harvest appears on the market, south-American soja sows successful, legume did not acclaim heat. The oil that home includes rape oil inside is supplied abundant, but demand is fatigued and weak. In Sino-US trade friction assuasive anticipates the possibility below, early days " super- go up " oily, dregs of rice occurrence callback unavoidable, the rape oil of inventory tall look forward to is heavy disaster area more.
(writer unit: Golden period invests)