Soybean shortage is sent supply glide
Although Sino-US trade friction alleviates somewhat, dan Meidou is purchased make progress without materiality however. Up to on November 9, the United States is right China sale soja gross decreases compared to the same period 94.3% , be in short supply to make up for prospective soja, inland trade businessman is energetic corner soja, chinese soja import rose 18% compared to the same period in October. What supply as South-American soja is dried up, domestic soja number of feed inlet measures hard to avoid to appear to glide considerably, below the condition that cannot enter Chinese market in great quantities in beautiful beans, future still faces the possibility that lacks a beans. Can compress soja inadequacy can bring about soya-bean oil to supply glide. In demand stable premise falls, oil reserve has the beans to glide considerably anticipate, stock goes low to support the price, far month grease has go up space.
According to custom total arrange imports data, china imported soybean in October 6.92 million tons, 2018 1, accumulative total imported soybean in October 76.93 million tons, under get on 77.3 million tons of year of the corresponding period.
According to Reuter report, trade business people predict, the four seasons was spent 2018, quantity of Chinese soja import is in 1600, 20 million tons between. Volume of import of 2018 annual soja predicts to reach 90.04 million tons in 86.24 million tons between, this relatively glided last year 5.78% , 9.76% .
Came every year in September second year May, domestic soja basically relies on the United States to supply, but from 2017/2018 American entrance soja occupies year to glide than beginning, south-American Brazil becomes Chinese soja to basically supply a country. Volume of import of soja of 2018/2019 year Brazil predicts relatively the corresponding period increased many tons 1000 last year, but as a result of beautiful beans number of feed inlet the volume drops considerably, accumulative total of the corresponding period imports an amount to will compare on one year to glide considerably, this meeting is brought about domestic soja appeared first quarter 2019 supply breach. The entrance soja that we assume the four seasons spends forecast comes from Brazil entirely, will come in January 2019 suppose in May, quantity of import of entrance Brazil soja increases compared to the same period 30% , came in September 2018 quantity of Brazilian soja import achieves 54.32 million tons during May 2019.
The inadequacy of usable soja brings about soya-bean oil to supply necessarily glide. We maintain demand to carry lowest to add fast forecast, came in September 2018 consumption of apparent of domestic soya-bean oil will achieve forteen million one hundred and sixty-seven thousand three hundred tons in May 2019, soya-bean oil crop only 13.26 million tons, add on 3.16 million tons period first inventory, to May 2019 soya-bean oil stock will fall reach 2.31 million tons, under 2.4 million tons of May 2018.
According to the most conservative forecast, soya-bean oil stock will fall to be controlled to 2.3 million tons, once arrive actually harbor soja under anticipate, fabaceous oil depot will be put in May 2019 will lower. Future, inventory can experience grease to drop quickly period.
From August, epidemic situation of African swine fever spreads many province city of countrywide. Desire of aquaculture filling column is not strong, live pig industry is faced with inflict heavy losses on, level of amount of livestock on hand of later period live pig will go low once more. Dregs of rice as the beans of demand turn weak, anticipate oily factory will be reduced switch on the mobile phone rate, reduce a beans accordingly to dregs of rice supply, soya-bean oil is supplied decrease subsequently likewise.
Up to on November 8, haven of countrywide palm oil adds commercial inventory to make an appointment with 818 thousand tons, inventory of rape oil oily plant two hundred and seventeen thousand three hundred tons, by inventory seasonal go situation, we pick up to palmy in May 2019 oily inventory suppose reach 1 million tons, rape oil inventory glides reach 100 thousand tons, so total reserve of 3 lard fat will glide from 4.54 million current tons reach 3.4 million tons (2018 the corresponding period 3.8 million tons) .
Oil price and inventory have huge correlativity, stock rises to form suppress to the price, of inventory glide drive oil price to go tall. Drop to be calculated to 2.3 million tons level according to inventory, we predict soya-bean oil spot price will want to return 5800 yuan in May 2019 / ton above.
From base difference goes situation look, the market is entered period show convergent level, merchandise on hand rises will drive dish of face to go tall, we predict soya-bean oil merchandise on hand regain 5800 yuan / ton a gleam of, up to in May 2019, period make the same score water now, dish honor award 5800 yuan / ton around.
Supply and demand of close month agreement is contradictory and clear, suffer inventory suppress, the price had improvement hard in January, we the safe limit that from January agreement seeks soya-bean oil. Fall after a rise of spot price of current soya-bean oil reachs 5400 yuan / ton the history is low. From January base difference looks, dish the face has continue the likelihood of agio. Hypothesis later period dish face agio 200 yuan / ton, so Y1901 still has 200 yuan / ton drop. Push perform Y1905 to go up, lower part still has 100, 200 yuan / ton risk, bear the bull of this risk can enter buy Y1905 contract.
(writer unit: Jiang Hai collects Xin futures)