Do kink of next be in a dilemma on white sugar relapse ablaz

  • Dec, 04th 2018

. Indian crop increases will drive global inventory to climb litre, makings add to perch of 53 million tons of records.

International candy city whether cast off bottom completely, see macroscopical face and basic face even cooperate, at present partial market personage expresses, be like stand firm of international sugar price 12.5 cent / over the pound, or finish build a base.

Each advocate produce a division difference of price of new old sugar is not big, add carry forward of old candy inventory to slant little, it is better to bring about sale status of new candy near future.

Detailed content

The white sugar market of two months lets a person recently some look not to understand, this feeling, resembling is a master, hold back enrol greatly a long time, you think he wants to pull out come to unique sword Wu Lin of Chi Buddhist templeput on the brakes, as a result he draws out a small dagger. It is first outside candy walks out of bottom, and inside candy follows go up lack of power, beetsugar is covered protect pressure to be in period price suppress 5250 under; It is to was put on November 16 moreover store after the message comes out, up to a week time November 23, the market is supplied increase Guangxi of 400 thousand tons of overlay to leave extract also fail to make dish of face drop before defeating low, agreement dropped only in May 160 nod interest empty prices, concussion of interval of Pan Zhongyan add goes situation. Such prices, fluctuation be in a dilemma, kink relapses, the ablaze fire that the market awaits Xiong Er whether light?

One, international sugar market: Supply end still superfluous

International sugar industry is organized (ISO) in issuance 3 quarters bulletin, to 18/19 sugar of the whole world that extract season supplies excess capacity beforehand appraise is 2.17 million tons, relatively in 2 quarters newspaper beforehand 6.75 million tons of appraise reduced 4.58 million tons, 7.28 million tons when extract season under 17/18; At the same time ISO forecasts 19/20 to press supply and demand of sugar of season whole world pattern or by superfluous turn for breach 2 million tons. According to message of Mu Tian science and technology, green Pool of commodity analysis orgnaization moved 18/19 to extract city of candy of season whole world to supply on Zhou San originally superfluous beforehand appraise reachs 3.6 million tons, before beforehand appraise is 3.22 million tons, the spending that adjusting an account basically is Brazil and Thailand respect increases beforehand appraise is worth under anticipate. This orgnaization still falls repaired European Union 18/19 to extract season sugar output beforehand appraise 600 thousand tons, reach 17.1 million tons, because Europe the leader of an alliance produces a country,weather of drought of summertime high temperature causes beet reduction in production.

Although yield was trimmed below each analysis orgnaization beforehand appraise, but global consumption is likewise small are adjusted downward. American Ministry of Agriculture (USDA) beforehand appraise, 18/19 extracts output of sugar of season whole world to will glide about 9 million tons, reach 185.9 million tons; At the same time global sugar consumption relatively repaired below 177.6 million tons of appreciably of appraise beforehand in May, reach 176.8 million tons, prep above 17/18 extracts 174 million tons of season. Among them, makings of Brazilian sugar output glides 8.3 million tons, reach 30.1 million tons; Indian crop makings increases 1.8 million tons to perch of 35.9 million tons of records, this is to even more 15 years to come first Indian sugar output exceeds Brazil.

Indian crop increases will drive global inventory to climb litre, makings add to perch of 53 million tons of records.

From the point of supply and demand of whole of international candy city, 18/19 extracts season to be below the circumstance that the output of sugar of main production country such as Brazil, India, European Union reduces considerably, global sugar supplies excess capacity to be moved considerably subsequently decrease, but still be in supply superfluous tired inventory situation. Oil price of near future international steeps fall, biology alcohol profit shrinks narrow, become in the anticipation that 19/20 extracts season supply and demand to balance a watch to also plan to decrease to alcohol is produced and increase sugar to produce in Brazil some invalidation.

International candy city whether cast off bottom completely, see macroscopical face and basic face even cooperate, at present partial market personage expresses, be like stand firm of international sugar price 12.5 cent / over the pound, or finish build a base.

2, domestic sugar market: Policy is crucial

Domestic candy city spreads out around national policy, basically be sugar cane buys value policy, dimension to help policy of adjusting control of deficient, estate, nation firmly store candy closes put store import quota and policy, custom duty policy and smuggling canal control policy.

Sugar cane buys value policy and dimension to help deficient up firmly: 18/19 extracts season Guangxi sugar cane to buy valence to be in 490 yuan surely / ton, relatively 17/18 extracts season to reduce 10 yuan / ton, tone reduces scope not quite, and first time of Guangxi prices bureau was asked for October 500 yuan are maintained in the opinion / ton sugar cane buys the price changeless. Domestic sugar produces a division is area of national level poverty more, candy stuff buys the price to reduce go against stable farmer mood, difficulty is accordingly greater. Policy of this value of the sugar cane that extract season still shows, enterprise of each refine sugar wants according to the regulation head pay valence and generator of candy stuff sugar cane settle accounts head Fu Zhe money paid for something purchased or received for something sold, the cash inside a month after raw material sugar cane enters a plant ends. We understand from market information, last year later period, guangxi municipality government asks to be loosened somewhat to cash of sugar cane money, partial group is protracted just pay farmer sugar cane the money to 8-9 month; This year government again from strict requirement, sugar-refinery opens the beard inside a week after extracting to pay sugarcane grower the sugar cane money of 60% , extract total cash ends inside a month, otherwise sugar cane area delimits other group. Below such capital pressure, refine sugar group appears on the market centrally in new candy hind, use more depreciate the money of sugar cane of cash of financing of means steam again of hurried sales volume.

Industrial policy and country store candy closes put store policy: Of policy of national industry adjusting control depend on maintaining gross of supply and demand at all balance, price is stable. In the country store respect of candy delivery of cargo from storage, the country can move a condition according to market demand and price timely put in. However, the delivery of cargo from storage of candy of 400 thousand tons of Cuba that came out on November 16 is directional the message that put in, your market bear pressure. Majority opens the act that reserve puts on candy during extracting to express to pay no attention to solution in Guangxi to the country, but at present on the low side of domestic sugar inventory, 400 thousand tons of candy put the whole nation to look, the amount is not large, benefit sky is affected somewhat abate, period, spot market drops finite. Additional, from the point of price angle, current Guangxi new candy appears on the market primary value is in 5300-5350 yuan / ton, quoted price of group of nearly two days of parts has 20-50 yuan / ton of extent reduce. According to market personage message, 400 thousand tons of countries store the undertaking that candy puts in is final settle accounts price or in 5300-5400 yuan / ton, with Guangxi new sugar price keeps balance basically, or do not have dozen of meaning that controls homebred sugar price, benefit sky influence is finite.

Import quota and custom duty policy: Entrance of our country sugar is in 3 bassoon to control policy under -- management of license of industry self-discipline, automatic import and commerce relieve safeguard measure. 17/18 extracts license of the import outside season quota to measure 1.5 million tons, relatively 16/17 extracts season 500 thousand tons many, 18/19 extracts season to import quota or announce in next year the beginning of the year, from the point of information of near future market, the entrance allows an amount or have raise a possibility.

Above all, australian respect. In the message says bay hopeful reachs agreement of bilateral free trade, to domestic candy city, be like Australian candy with low custom duty even 0 custom duty enter home market, can be imagined to the concussion of domestic sugar price. And, the net passes a message to say, our country may vacate partial sugar market changes market of its industrial product, similar we use pair of beauty to vacate soybean market exchanges light industry product. Accordingly, in bay the negotiation process from trade agreement and specific content, need follow-up and close attention.

Next, indian respect. According to information of Peng rich company, because our country and American business relation are exasperate, be about to seek the sugar trade cooperation with India, survey of next month our country is round should Indian candy assist invite will go to industry of Indian survey sugar to check infrastructure, or opportunity of business having consult. Additionally Indian media expresses, india 2019 meaning exporting 2 million tons of raw sugar to China, already signed contract of 50 thousand tons of export at present; Indian trade department says, china expresses to will be not rice of the base of a fruit of Ba Si horse from Indian entrance before this (be not aromatic rice) , if this sugar trade collaboration is concluded, will become the near future cooperation of commerce of the 2nd big produce; If discuss a success, about import tariff problem, still do not import tax rate of raw sugar duty how to be adjusted from India certainly at present, whether can also give India certainly under the tax rate privilege of 90% , this basically looks with the United States this week discusses a result whether dozen win. Afore-mentioned messages or from supply price of sugar of home of the sky that carry benefit, but disclose according to relevant personnel, imprint part of square message hype is larger, importer talks or of short duration does not have intent, symbolistic perhaps purchase a few India candy in order to show kindness, but the amount did not imprint 2 million tons of amounts that just come out are so huge.

3, analysis of prices of near future home market

According to message of Mu Tian science and technology, on November 21, sugar-refinery of big bridge of the candy austral Guangxi leaves extract open Guangxi 18/19 to extract Ji Xu act; Up to now, according to not complete count, guangxi already had 14 sugar-refinery to leave extract, increase 5 compared to the same period, extract sugar-refinery day produce can 124300 tons, increase 49800 tons compared to the same period / day. Predict Guangxi shares 20 or so sugar-refinery to leave this month extract, always produce candy to measure beforehand appraise is controlled in 100 thousand tons. At present each produce an area to be in source of new old candy to have sex period, before Guangxi new candy signs up for marked price, be in 5250-5350 yuan / ton, not as big as difference of old sugar price; Yunnan candy quotes 5200 yuan / ton, relatively old candy only 100 yuan / or so tons premium; Guangdong new candy quotes 5250 yuan / or so tons, approach quoted price of Guangxi new sugar basically.

Each advocate produce a division difference of price of new old sugar is not big, add carry forward of old candy inventory to slant little, it is better to bring about sale status of new candy near future.

Short-term in light of, domestic candy city is filling continuously and put store below the hearsay, fail to drop before defeating low open drop newly space, the market lacks new subject matter stimulation, predict to walk along continuance concussion situation. Zheng candy in January agreement or have base poor rehabilitate anticipates; The pressure that new candy appears on the market centrally basically is in May on agreement, sequel still in order to meet headroom is given priority to. In light of metaphase, 18/19 extracts season to still be in increase production cycle, xiong Fu anticipates do not change; Below the case that entrance and difference of price of the sugar outside be being contrabanded inside still put, still have potential menace to domestic candy city, market sentiment is not hopeful. Will for a long time look, city of domestic and international candy will extract Ji Jin to enter cycle of reduction of output in 19/20, global sugar is supplied superfluous or will turn to be in short supply to supply, but Brazilian sugar alcohol issues existence variable than steeping fall in crude oil, home still has the fills continuously potential pressure with reserve candy and long already cry, ablaze fire of Xiong Er whether light, see policy way even.