Corn is short-term existence callback risk meets low do much

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Face Chu Yu rice to stop pat already had 3 weeks, the same corn market that no less than estimates before us did not appear like last year rise continuously prices, appeared however concussion rehabilitate goes situation. This week, the back-to-back 3 shade line after 1901 contract open Lian Panyu rice high, drop defeat 1900 yuan / ton reach 1880 yuan / ton. But we think now, short-term inside the space that corn drops further is limited, can consider to meet low do much.

The near future brings about Lian Panyu rice to go situation dropping element has the following sides:

The first, the corn on the market year ago has the possibility that furnishs centrally. Annual the end of the year, trafficker has mostly change the commissariat in the hand the pressure that shows reimbursement, the circumstance that later period corn may appear to sell centrally. In addition, northeast this year area reaps plan defer, although short-term inside concentration supplies pressure to slant small, but supply after delaying, height of grain of carry out of overlay the end of the year, corn has callback risk truly.

The 2nd, sino-US two countries restarts the high level speaks, trade war already appeared a lot of apparent alleviation evidence, benefit sky dregses of rice kind of etc entrance cereal, be a burden on connects dish of corn price to drop.

The 3rd, at present African swine fever spreads much ground, epidemic situation becomes consensus continuously, early days presses column circumstance to already alleviated, particularly northern region is very much raise what big pig exceeds big pig door give column quickly, breed a filling column enthusiasm not beautiful, put delay somewhat to the demand of feed.

Be based on above element, bull mood is flabby, gain profit finish causes dish of face value to drop.

But we think, short-term inside corn drops the space is limited, can consider to meet low do much.

The first, the anticipation of breach of corn market supply and demand still is put, mood of cherish carry out lasts. Corn is already successive 3 produce per year inadequacy to need, and the entrance achieves quota restriction, corn breach counts reserve, the pattern that market of the corn inside a year seeks for be more than will become future past type. Accordingly, farmer and trafficker the price to corn is line of know how things stand and feel confident of handling them, corn floor space is very limited.

The 2nd, corn spot price is strong. Although say to connect dish of corn price to appear successive 3 shade line, but domestic corn spot price as before strong. Allowance of Heilongjiang corn producer drops considerably this year reach 25 yuan / ton, farmer grows cost and do not have some going to to alleviate, northeast area corn is bullish mood as before grumous. Unlike last year, it is better this year that China north grain pledges this year, accept for place of southern feed business more, many enterprises purchase corn to China north, cause China north corn somewhat outflow. And profit of deep treatment company is at present good, to prevent corn outflow, hua Beishen machines an enterprise to carry valence to maintain a volume, partial area corn breaks through 1 yuan already / jin close greatly. Show according to Cofeed data, stockpile of corn of company of domestic deep treatment and the corresponding period kept balance basically last year. The price gain play chess that mood of predicting cherish carry out brings is met as before dominant corn market, cause corn market value to go up easily to drop hard. At present price of corn of haven of circle of Liaoning Spanish mackerel is in 1880-1895 yuan / ton (unit weight 700-720) . Hold of rough estimation corn comes in January complete a business transaction, charge is 35-53 roughly yuan / ton, lian Panyu rice 1901 agreement drop further may appear period cover profit opportunity now. Accordingly, in spot price strong case falls, price of Lian Panyu rice drops the space is very limited.

The 3rd, corn raise anticipates with demand did not decrease considerably. Although African swine fever sweeps across much province, but it is medium or small piece now mostly farm, and large farm manages better delicacy to have appearance of occurrence swine fever. Since live pig erupted September, amount of livestock on hand of our country live pig did not appear because of swine fever to decrease considerably. In addition, because Sino-US commerce chafes,the albumen feed price that cause rises considerably, the energy in causing feed kind the attune on corn scale, the raise that increased corn uses consumption. Accordingly, african swine fever did not cause substantial effect to corn consumption.

Be based on above element, we think short-term inside the space that 1901 agreement drop further is limited, drop to also drop hard further defeat 1850 yuan / ton, can consider to search an opportunity to meet low do much.