System of global soja price is unripe change " Chinese pric

  • Dec, 04th 2018

"Import soybean boldly in great quantities from Brazil, Argentine, Canada, Wukelan. " international trade invests song heart luck Bai Misiteli was in much Ruan of limited company trustee a few days ago thirteenth express on congress of international grease oil plants.

On another dais of the assembly room, brazilian agriculture seeks advice from firm partner to install Delie Debasidianni to say ebulliently: "Brazilian soja still has the latent capacity of increase production, the soja of our South America can satisfy requirement of Chinese market soja completely. The soja of our South America can satisfy requirement of Chinese market soja completely..

Chinese soja year import volume makes an appointment with 100 million tons, take amount of global soja commerce 6 into. In recent years, china is imported in great quantities to the country such as Brazil, "Savor benefit " South-American country is expanding ceaselessly grow an area.

Global soja supplies pattern change, affecting system of global soja price. New round Bo Yizhong, "Chinese sound " striving for obtain greater speech to counterpoise.

Global soja supplies pattern change

"Very unfortunate, we lost Chinese client now. " represent as American farmer, du Baode of director of American soybean association expresses helplessly on afore-mentioned conferences.

Data of center of national grain oily information shows, our country is added to American soja impose 25% imports custom duty, cost of American soja entrance raises 700 yuan every tons to go to 800 yuan, every tons 300 yuan or so taller than Brazilian soja.

The country such as Brazil continued to come from soja order of China. "Successive 8 crop are seasonal, brazilian soja is very plentiful bumper harvest, our manufacturing business gains profit quite abundant. Because soybean per unit area yield rises ceaselessly,wait, every acre income has 200 dollars probably. " Andre Debasidianni says in making a speech publicly, gain profit quite abundant gives the South-American country such as Brazil, Argentina to enlarge the motive force that grows an area further, soja of Brazil of predicting 2018/2019 year cultivates an area to will increase 36 million hectare.

"Flow direction of new global soja commerce already was formed stage by stage. " Liu Yuhui tells Guangzhou futures analyst China to negotiable securities signs up for a reporter, chinese importer is given priority to with purchasing South-American supply of goods. Soja of Brazilian new season is opened to booking degree and sow plan also relatively in former years rises considerably, basically be the breach that wants to make up for South America to be supplied to China.

Andre Debasidianni thinks, brazilian soja still has the latent capacity of increase production, big probability of next year crop can achieve 120 million record-breaking tons, argentine soybean crop will pick up afresh reach 54 million tons, this is brought about global soybean crop will achieve 366 million tons 2019, and soja consumption anticipates the whole world to be 349 million tons only, supply exceeds demand brings about soja price to will continue bear pressure.

"Become world soja to supply the main source of growth as Brazil and Argentine soja, brazilian crop increases fast promotion, challenge supply bibcock position of the United States ceaselessly. " Liu Xiao Yi expresses analyst of one heart futures, hopeful of crop of beautiful this year beans achieves the history again new tall, the period end inventory of beautiful beans of predicting 2017/2018 year will be far exceed 1 billion bushel.

Beautiful beans inventory is added try to reach global soja to supply pattern to change, the likelihood affects system of global soja price. "Increase of beautiful beans inventory considerably, carry the inventory consumption that raises global soja is compared. Current, the inventory of global soja is used than from 21% mentioned 29% , american inventory is used than achieving 43% , and the inventory of other country is used than from 21% dropped 19% . Here setting falls, soja is about to fix a price through the international market, and no longer the basis is beautiful dish of price. " Liu Xiao Yi says.

"Chinese price " more get attention

"Situation of trade of if whole world fails to improve, we change the price structure of soja with respect to can organic meeting. " Andre Debasidianni expresses, "Among the process that changes in dollar exchange rate, we may fix a price no longer with the dollar, follow couple of price of futures of soybean of Dalian Commodity Exchange however, such having more safety and stable price will stabilize the market. Such having more safety and stable price will stabilize the market..

Our country is the mainest soja consumption country on the world, but domestic soja is produced can satisfy market demand hard all the time, basically count an import. With was 2017 exemple, consumption of our country soja exceeds 110 million tons, rank world first place, but domestic soybean crop only 15.3 million tons, entrance soybean volume achieves 96 million tons, occupy than 86% .

Develop to maintain health of national food safety, stimulative industry, master soja international price to counterpoise, in recent years, whole soja reachs relevant industry, used the money market tool such as futures actively to do a lot of serious works, acquire certain international speech right gradually on soybean market.

According to Dalian Commodity Exchange (abbreviation " big business place " ) introduce, from appear on the market at first trade soybean futures, arrived to appear on the market in succession ever since the beans dregses of rice, Huang Dadou 1, 2 date, soya-bean oil, arrive again appear on the market palm oil futures, big business place formed collect raw material stage by stage -- compress -- feed at system of relatively an organic whole, perfect industrial catenary breed. Last year on March 31, big business place appeared on the market again first commodity period of domestic counterpoises -- the beans dregses of rice period authority, for industrial company investor of risk management, orgnaization configured asset to provide solid market basis.

To satisfy spot market further effective demand, place of big last year business returns pair of Huang Dadou 2 agreement regulation undertakes adjustment. The personage inside meantime course of study is commented on say, huang Dadou of 2 new contract appear on the market, to relevant industry development has 4 great active senses at least:

It is to be helpful for those who pass through making international " Chinese standard " . Huang Dadou all brings into beautiful soja of north and south 2 numbers limits of standard items of complete a business transaction, highlight the standard of the quality that sell a division in global soja commerce, be helpful for be being formed in domain of soja international trade " Chinese standard " .

2 it is to be helpful for forming open and transparent " Chinese price " . Huang Dadou is main mark 2 numbers with importing soybean, with RMB valuation and settle accounts, reflected Chinese market value, be helpful for increasing international force, become global soja to sell the fiducial price of the area stage by stage.

3 it is to be helpful for implementing strategy of safety of executive country food. Soja is the important raw material that grain oil processes. 2 new contract carry out Huang Dadou regularly, conduce to safeguard soja compressing to produce industry stability to manage with feed, oily food of safeguard country food furnishs.

4 it is to be helpful for Chinese enterprise covering period keep a cost. Chinese enterprise uses American soybean option market to undertake covering period keep a cost, only can risk of change of value of market of soybean of avoid United States, set ensure the result finite. And use Huang Dadou 2 undertake covering period keep a cost, OK still the risk such as change of cost of avoid radical difference, freight, exchange rate, tax, promote risk management the effect apparently.

"Home compresses this year the enterprise uses domestic and international option market, purchase soja of long-dated South America, sell a beans to dregs of rice to be covered with soya-bean oil futures period keep a cost, open to booking ahead of schedule the beans dregses of rice and soya-bean oil radical needs a contract, lock up not only compress surely profit, still made sure domestic grain is oily since this year the stability of the market is supplied. " agriculture of big business place tastes Wang Yufei of career department inspector general to express.

She says, in recent years, domestic soybean spot market consumes structure and commerce flow direction to produce change, big business place passes modification Huang Dadou standard of quality of a complete a business transaction, adjust place of complete a business transaction to reach litre of agio, nicer play variety is covered period protect value and price to discover a function.

Meanwhile, the international consequence of futures of produce of big business place increases ceaselessly. Futures of produce of FIA whole world traded 2017 in measuring a rank, big business place has 7 variety in 10 produce before the row 20, the beans dregses of rice, corn, palm oil and soya-bean oil part a row 1, 2, 6, 8, among them the beans dregses of rice successive 3 years a row the 1st. 2018, big business place has the honor to win futures and records of period authority world (FOW) " year is burgeoning market bourse " large award.

Promote international speech right further

Of course, we also want to admit, although amount of Chinese soja entrance is huge, but counterpoise to the speech of soja price at present still insufficient.

"International trade situation lets us see the drawback that relies on entrance of minority agriculture developed country, import produce price namely policy and crop affect country of exit of extremely easy be enslaved to be enslaved to. " Liu Xiao Yi expresses.

"To strengthen Chinese produce futures the speech on the international market counterpoises, on one hand, we should make full use of risk of international market of option market avoid; On the other hand, should encourage business of domestic grain trade to move toward the world, the international that waits for a respect through beginning commissariat storage, content shedding, treatment, trade cooperates, globalization layout produce trades the market. " Liu Xiao Yi expresses.

Liu Yuhui points out, expect in soja and even oily leaf fat to how enhancing China the speech on the market counterpoises, basically have inside course of study suggested at 3 o'clock: The first, from cultivate supply angle, enhance the crop of our country soja and manufacturing efficiency; The 2nd, push those who have job to commercialize further with diversification, answer to satisfy the real requirement of the market further, the demand that waits for grease product like current corn oil, sunflower seed oil, tea-seed oil is rising, the demand of traditional soya-bean oil, rape oil, palm oil somewhat abate; The 3rd, the risk canal that the enterprise wants to enhance oneself controls capacity, in the market the circumstance of fluctuant aggravate falls, can stable production is managed, stabilize the market competition ability of the industry.

Look from bourse angle, wang Fenghai of general manager of big business place expresses, next, bourse will be accelerated advance Huang Dadou an agreement is revised regularly perfect, trade through optimizing futures business system is farther active Huang Dadou 2 agreement, convenience and hypostatic enterprise is participated in use option market. In the meantime, answer " one belt all the way " proposal, bourse drives Huang Dadou further of breed of 1 date, 2 date, palm oil open to the outside world, build with RMB valuation internationally option market of grease oil plants, serve international market participator.