American Ministry of Agriculture published report of new monthly supply and demand on November 8, this second report is right beautiful soja some crucial data was done relatively major key is whole, cause oscillation of market wide cut. American Ministry of Agriculture will be beautiful data of fabaceous per unit area yield by on 53.1 bushel of the month / acre attune falls 52.1 bushel / acre, this per unit area yield adjusts range bigger, return level of 2016/2017 year per unit area yield basically, the adverse weather that shows beautiful beans reaps level is caused to per unit area yield bigger damage. Per unit area yield of beans sufferring the United States reduces an effect, beautiful beans total output relatively on the month drops to reach one hundred and twenty-five million one hundred and eighty thousand tons 2.45 million tons, still be beautiful beans history top yield level. Suffer effect of Sino-US trade friction, report Sino-US beans exports data this month relatively on month considerably fall after a rise reachs 51.71 million tons, fall panel height amounts to 4.35 million tons, cause stock of period end carry forward by get on 24.09 million tons when the month evaluates to rise reach 26 million tons, compared to the same period amplitude is as high as 118% , stock of history of the beans that it is the United States is top level.
In addition, american Ministry of Agriculture will move 2 million tons to reach 77 million tons on volume of Brazilian soja export, crop of will Argentine soybean reduces 1.5 million tons to reach 55.5 million tons. American Ministry of Agriculture still was done to data of Chinese soja supply and demand relatively major key is whole, 1 million tons are moved to reach 16 million tons on crop among them, import volume reduces 4 million tons to reach 90 million tons, still relatively center of oily information of Chinese country grain is newest assessment number of feed inlet occupies tower above 6 million tons. whole, because the market is opposite,attention of data of period end reserve spends beautiful beans bigger, this second report has certain benefit sky to affect to the market, but Sino-US business relation whether obtaining a breakthrough just is to affect beautiful beans to take the crucial place of situation.
Afterwards is Sino-US last week dynast communicates after affirming both sides will adopt measure to improve tension of trade of current and bilateral classics to concern, international money market is responded to actively to this front generally, alleviated considerably what Chinese market supplies breach to importing soja and beans to dregs of rice is anxious.
The newest data that national customs total office publishs shows, china imported soybean in October 6.92 million tons, increase compared to the same period 18% , 1, accumulative total imported 76.93 million tons in October, accumulative total amount drops compared to the same period 0.5% , fall continue to close narrow. Soja imported data to increase considerably in October, advocate soja of the international after if because the market worries about Brazilian soja,supply season,ending supplies hasten to tighten and increase buy place to bring about. From at present sailing date dogs the circumstance looks, predict to imported soja to be 7 million tons about to harbor quantity in November, was 6.5 million tons about in December, fall possibly in January next year reach 5.4 million tons. At present stocks of domestic haven soybean is 7.06 million tons about, be in level of normal on the high side. Factory soja supplies domestic large oil enough, can satisfy next year basically the beans before January dregses of rice compress demand. The soja exit that announces from American Ministry of Agriculture sells a report to look, up to became on November 1, china buys beautiful beans quantity to be 977 thousand tons (install boat quantity to be 407 thousand tons among them) , the corresponding period bought a quantity to be seventeen million one hundred and twenty-six thousand two hundred tons last year. If Sino-US trade friction alleviates by the month, at the appointed time beautiful beans is right China exit general occurrence increase sharply, improve home of next year the beginning of the year to supply pressure apparently.
Before Sino-US dynast meets by the month, suffer Sino-US trade group to develop negotiation effect, the bullish sentiment of domestic legume market will be squelched continuously. Domestic haven and stock of large company soja are enough, need square rein in to purchase rhythm to bring about a beans to dregs of rice, soya-bean oil inventory is climbed litre, oily factory lacks the power that raise price generally. But import cost on the high side with soja as a result of oily plant institute, in compress the effect propping up of the cost after profit enters deficit state also can increase.
End of demand of homebred soybean market cannot be carried brace up the price, include next year the beginning of the year the message such as may many directional sale still goes against soja price to walk out of weak force, do not suggest to copy a bottom prematurely to do much, can continue to keep wait-and-see.