One, whether does empty factor of early days interest continue prices of the city after dominant?
From October since the middle ten days of a month, dregs of rice repeatedly walk out of oscillation one round to slant empty prices. This phase dominant dregses of rice repeatedly main attribute a fault to is the element of situation the trade friction that at Sino-US leader place of word of each other electrify brings is looked like somewhat assuasive mood and beautiful beans exit go weak to anticipate and the promulgating of Chinese feed new rule. So, are these interest empty factors in hind city whether does enough continue dominant prices?
Trade friction alleviation anticipates effect is formed again hard considerably benefit is empty
Since Sino-US trade friction happens, the beans dregses of rice agreement (especially 01 agreement) already the import tariff premium of infuse fulfil the quota, option market price suffers commerce to attrition is affected and fluctuate considerably, the long-term sex that the commerce before this chafes and austere sex anticipate already became consensus. Late on November 1 Sino-US leader word of each other electrify, go up in Sino-US relation and trade peace talks really mainly, but its follow-up after showing friendly attitude each other development communication still needs when the G20 peak of the end of this month is met. Telangpu this active incoming telegram the possibility with its larger intention is to alleviate the resentment of the constituency before metaphase election does final sprint to win more vote thereby. From the point of angle of assuasive of friction of the most advantageous trade, although cancel early days,the custom duty of promotion also wants the earliest when after the peak is met at the beginning of December. Purchase beautiful beans at the appointed time, the fastest course namely from the United States carry also needs above 20 days to China on the west, plus the time that discharge harbor compresses, form available supply to also want the earliest to come to the end of December to home market at the beginning of January. Accordingly, will look from time place, although custom duty cancels or reduce, agreement dregsed of rice to the beans before the bottom in December (especially 01 agreement) again benefit sky impact is very little. Through rough estimation, if custom duty cancels, hypothesis beautiful beans rebounds to 930 cent / near bushel a gleam of, estimated dregs of rice repeatedly cost is in 3050, 3150 yuan / ton around. Will integratedly look, dregs of rice repeatedly lower part space is afraid have hard bigger expect.
Beautiful beans exit goes weak to ferment period will use up
In the meantime, the report of USDA supply and demand October is moved considerably low the export demand that beautiful beans makes newly, but it is certain to acclaim an element to have ferment period, anticipate in alleviation of current trade friction relatively grumous atmosphere falls especially, go weak to continue hard by right of exit only next explore beautiful beanses and dregs of rice repeatedly.
Feed new rule cannot continue to produce apparent benefit empty effect
On October 26, association of Chinese feed industry issues two standards, after new standard is carried out in the round in entire industry and be being carried out effectively, aquaculture beans dregses of rice hopeful reduces year of wastage about 11 million tons, drive reduce soja demand to make an appointment with 14 million tons.
In October after the middle ten days of a month, dregs of rice in the beans new rule of apparent, feed issues value of much excessive of early days benefit below the atmosphere that benefit empty mood diffuses, the beans dregses of rice futures price dropped 200 yuan / or so tons, the benefit empty effect that institute of feed new rule brings is reflected on certain already level in existing price.
Notable is, new standard is a guideline only, be not have completely mandatory, the group level of short duration of association does not have strict executive strength. Short-term in light of, new rule emerges hard relatively the influence of materiality, the market is unfavorable and overmuch hype. Actually, because suffer trade friction to affect a beans to dregs of rice this year,the price rises somewhat, the beans that most large feed-processing plant uses dregses of rice to had decreased somewhat than last year, although executive effect of new rule promotion is better, the effect that the demand change with real market produces to price place may be lesser. And, after although new rule is effective,be being carried out, can drive supply at the same time on certain level contractible. On put together, the city after feed new rule is right dregses of rice repeatedly prices cannot continue to produce apparent benefit empty effect.
2, hind what is city's new hype heat?
Case of the market price after beautiful beans slants strong oscillation is given priority to
Current, time place already came to November, namely the end that South-American soja supplies season, can make work soja is finite, the export demand of the market changes North America to soja.
Pass empty effect of early days benefit release, combine beautiful beans grow cost, mood of carry out of cherish of later period farmer also will be propped up somewhat to the price, very beautiful beans exports the end benefit that because South-American beans is in,supplies season at the same time, the city after beautiful beans is below the atmosphere with relatively strong sentiment of trade friction alleviation still with slanting strong oscillation is given priority to.
Domestic supply and demand analyses: City is supplied after tighten up somewhat, demand metaphase is smooth
Arrive actually in October harbor 6.205 million tons, under this before 6.399 million premonitory tons. 11, anticipated to harbor the quantity is 5.742 million tons respectively December, 6 million tons. The basis is calculated, prospective soja is supplied tighten up somewhat, and the soja after November supplies a likelihood to still have gap.
Demand side, short-term in light of, of feed new rule promulgate arise hard relatively the influence of materiality and it is better to although new rule is popularized,carry out the effect, the effect that the demand change with real market produces to price place may be lesser. Incident of domestic Africa swine fever, from the point of current condition this incident dregses of rice to the beans the influence of market demand has been digested by the market gradually. Together with home strengthens the quarantine of opposite pig to control, after swine fever incident gets controlling, be in especially breed the setting with passable profit to fall, filling column of live pig of the city after the likelihood is exciting, promote a beans to dregs of rice then demand. Because breed cycle,do not pass longer, in short-term inside won't cause live pig amount of livestock on hand change considerably, but the benefit much effect that does not exclude its to anticipate.
As hind force of city supply and demand loses by force turn round, the beans dregses of rice hopeful goes in year end open inventory process, beans of the city after profit is good dregses of rice the price.
Integrated domestic and international circumstance, we think the beans dregses of rice metaphase goes situation is easy go up to drop hard, centre of gravity of the price in deducing frequent oscillation possibly carries stage by stage the prices that rise, operate train of thought to go up consequently in order to meet low buy give priority to. Move considering safe limit price, time storehouse and seasonal the element such as busy season, m1905 agreement is opposite M1901 agreement, have more buy a dominant position, choose this agreement to serve as this politic main operand, pressure of 05 agreement upper part 3050 yuan / ton around. (writer unit: The futures that bring food)