From fly towering the depression after flourishing to cotton

  • Dec, 04th 2018

From June the reduction of output of Xinjiang is acclaimed, the price flies to be like rainbow to weather situation, to now November produce and sale not free, pily price bold and flowing, the pily price this year is just as switchback general, let National People's Congress open horizon indeed. Does sequel go situation after all how?

Into also " periodic " , be defeated also " periodic "

Economic cycle and heavy goods be closely bound up, regression round of economy cycle, in March 2016 portion beginning, in the 3 supply that go falling side reforms big setting to fall, cooperate familiar real estate to invest demand stimulation, chinese economy greeted what one end length amounts to 3 years to anabiosis period, this among them landed investment amid is producing all in all effect: Estate whole sells data to go up again ceaselessly new chance to extricateoneself from an awkward position, each district inventory calls the police, especially 3 lines, 4 lines even Qi Sheng of price of volume of 5 lines city lets countless people look " room " not reach. But common saying says, when tidewater always has retire, september 2018, 10 thousand divisions hold high " subsist " catchword start shooting estate company depreciates go the first gun of inventory, subsequently the market of rapid follow-up anticipated look forward to of each old brand room to also happen relatively about-face, house from before hot to nowadays lack person make inquires, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, once real estate sells carry out data to begin to appear,exceed anticipated gliding, the real estate that will naturally drive whole invests data be issued to lower levels, squelch domestic fixed assets invests thereby, what can predict accordingly is, four quarters arrived 2018 2019 first quarter, the data show that invests end will appear firm in of be issued to lower levels go situation, benefit is empty of heavy goods go situation.

"General trends " under, pily Yan can " pay attention to one's own moral uplift without thought of others "

Regard pily consumption as main body, home's downstream spin enterprise began to experience a paragraph of longer benign development period from 2016, the price of pily raw material with relatively stable whole, economy anabiosises drive pily consumption to pick up, let spin enterprise score relatively rich and generous gain, integral consumption is firm in have into.

But later period two big factors not allow to ignore, it is Sino-US trade friction above all the influence to spin enterprise, 2017 and even domestic dry goods exported data whole to look first half of the year 2018 is accumulative total grows small compared to the same period, second half of the year began 2018, the export of textile begins to be affected by trade friction, this basically is the category of punish detailed list that is in the United States because of dress, abroad buy the home for avoid risk, be willing to choose to wait for the sheet below South Asia country to Vietnam, Bengal more, the export order acute of domestic spin enterprise is decreased, add Turkey to regard the entrance of cotton and textile as big country, be affected likewise by trade friction, economic cannot recover after a setback, this will squelch domestic cotton is consumed. It is the conduction of industrial catenary next, round of cotton price, short fine rose in price to encounter industrial catenary to conduct not smooth problem, upriver raw material is started rise in price, but downstream clothing fabrics business bears hard, inventory is layer upon layer increase by degrees, pressure chases class to increase.

The pily price that looks into future goes situation, economic firm syncopation falls influence of friction of periodic overlay trade, cotton is consumed will small fall after a rise, hopeful returns 8.5 million tons of around levels, link the commercial reserve that the yield data this year and early days are ignored by the market all the time, appreciably of pily whole supply and demand slants comfortable, the price predicts firm in have fall.