Since November, malaysia derives the palm oil of the wool palm oil that tastes bourse and Dalian Commodity Exchange to drop continuously, achieve in succession piece inside year new low, agreement of close month of oil of Lv of Malaysia Mao Zong is to achieve more piece since 2009 new low.
2, drive element and future develop
Palm oil advocate output of nearly 3 months and inventory amplitude exceed Indonesia yield a country and Malaysia anticipate, emulative quote brings about two countries spot price lasts fatigued and weak. Consumption of domestic palm oil is entered off-season, but entrance profit is better still drive an entrance to measure stability, inventory predicts to will rise. Additional, occurrence a favourable turn of hopeful of Sino-US business relation, gave up the market will be entered to domestic edible grease go the anticipation of inventory cycle.
1.Stock of producing area palm oil rises continuously
According to association of Indonesian palm oil (GAPKI) data, this year 1-9 month, crop of Indonesian wool palm oil is thirty-five million and eighty-four thousand tons, than last year the corresponding period increases 5.199 million tons. 1-9 month is Indonesian exit palm oil twenty-four million and forty-four thousand tons, increase 864 thousand tons compared to the same period. Up to by September, indonesian and palmy oil depot puts 4.602 million tons, increase 1.685 million tons compared to the same period.
According to Malaysia palm oil total arrange (MPOB) data, this year 1-10 month, crop of Ma Laimao palm oil is fifteen million eight hundred and sixty-two thousand two hundred tons, than last year the corresponding period reduces two hundred and eighty thousand one hundred tons. Volume of export of oil of Ma Laizong Lv is 1-10 month thirteen million seven hundred and seventeen thousand two hundred tons, than last year the corresponding period reduces fifty-eight thousand nine hundred tons. Up to by October, oil depot of Ma Laizong Lv puts two million seven hundred and twenty-two thousand four hundred tons, the bottom was two million two hundred and three thousand three hundred tons last year in October,
As a whole, crop of producing area palm oil increases four million nine hundred and eighteen thousand nine hundred tons compared to the same period this year, amplitude 10.69% ; Export increases eight hundred and five thousand one hundred tons compared to the same period, amplitude 2.18% ; amplitude 31.18% .
Graph 1: Mixed 2018 Indonesian 2017 + oily case of Ma Laizong Lv is parallel (10 thousand tons, % )
Data sources: GAPKI, MPOB, explain institute of 10 thousand futures
Graph 2: Indonesian put a case with oil depot of Ma Laizong Lv (10 thousand tons)
Data sources: GAPKI, MPOB, explain institute of 10 thousand futures
The beginning of the year when, the market to Indonesian this year palm oil crop beforehand appraise is 3950-4000 10 thousand tons, result, the crop of before 9 months has exceeded 35 million tons, the crop hopeful of annual exceeds 43 million tons, extreme value may exceed 45 million tons, although Indonesian this year palm oil export also increases somewhat, but supplying superfluous case still is more and more serious: Stock is consecutive 5 months are maintained in 4.5 million tons of above.
This year first half of the year, palm oil crop of Ma Lai anticipates not as good as, but since July, crop is successive 4 months resume sexual growth, the crop October is 1.965 million tons, had been the 2nd high only month yield of nearly 3 years. And the palm oil this year exports Malaysia, be squeezed Indonesianly on one hand occupy, still be imported custom duty to reduce the effect of the entrance on the other hand by the attune on India, 1-10 month exit drops small compared to the same period this year, especially 7-10 month, exit reduces nearly 460 thousand tons compared to the same period (7.7% ) , bring about inventory to rise from 2.23 million tons directly two million seven hundred and twenty-two thousand four hundred tons.
Two old palm oil advocate the reserve that produces a country to rise continuously, force the export price of two countries begins to drop emulatively since July, especially Indonesian, the quote of the following in September sailing date, want cheap 40-50 dollar than Ma Lai from beginning to end / ton (in former years is general cheap 20-25 dollar / ton) . At present the Indonesian CNF of sailing date will quote in January 2019 is 510 dollars / ton, the pay taxes cost that conversion becomes Chinese southern haven is 4315 yuan / ton, and on November 1 when, quote still is 555 dollars / ton, to cost of harbor pay taxes 4700 yuan / ton.
Arrived in November next year in Feburary, malaysia and Indonesian will enter cycle of seasonal reduction of output, but also be consumption likewise off-season. Add India short-term inside reduce import custom duty impossibly, and the drops to also bring about palm oil to make biology diesel oil profit of crude price drops apparently. Did not come so 3 months, the palm oil inventory of producing area appears very hard to drop apparently, be based on the crop circumstance this year even, big probability inventory will continue to rise, so since November, malaysia derives those who taste price of bourse wool palm oil to drop quickly, reflective is future the pessimism of producing area palm oil mixes a quarter to anticipate helplessly.
Home enters consumption off-season, the entrance is stable
Above all, palm oil enters consumption off-season, although the price of soya-bean oil and palm oil is poor now, the price difference of rape oil and palm oil is in level of on the high side, but the character of palm oil low condensation point decided it replace demand not to grow in this season.
The palm oil export price of producing area is in a month dropped quickly in the past, the case with bring about daily replacement to import profit to appear for a time better, this drives home to begin to buy the palm oil of sailing date of month of next year 1-5, be in at the same time Dalian dish on sell piece, the lock decides profit. The entrance gain level of palm oil is good since this year in the past average level of 3 years, so this year 1-9 month, home imports 24 degrees of palm oil 2.5 million tons, than last year the corresponding period is 120 thousand tons high, this trend predicts to will last, the import volume stability of domestic palm oil grows to small.
Main area mixes 3 lard fat anticipate have difference, palm oil is the weakest
From supply and demand main area looks, the market thinks the main area of rape oil is best generally now, in the course successive 3 years after casting Chu Zhi, 2 quarters meet rape oil next year probably later the supply of occurrence phase sex is nervous.
As soja import volume arrived to will reduce many tons 900 compared to the same period in January next year in November, soya-bean oil inventory begins to drop eventually, and predict will last to Feburary. The uncertainty that additionally Sino-US classics trade concerns also has to the price of soya-bean oil prop up certainly.
Watch palm oil instead, the entrance measures stability, producing area is supplied enough, supply end to did not anticipate; Consumption is entered off-season, hopeful of relationship of Sino-US classics trade alleviates, temporary also disappear borrows besides domestic edible oil machine enter go inventory anticipates periodicly, such consumptive end also were done not have anticipate. So short-term inside, the least in 3 lard fat anticipates palm oil, this brings about as palm oil and soya-bean oil, poor as the price of rape oil abidance to expand directly, change character, palm oil makes the near future is the weakest variety in 3 lard fat.
Unfavorable chase after empty
As Zhou Wu oil of Ma Panmao palm drops greatly, the CNF quote of Malaysia palm oil has approached Indonesian quoted price, indonesian CNF quote has the sign with sure look forward to. The Malaysia of next year and Indonesian palm oil export price show CONTANGO structure, from cost angle consideration, show level probable it is period of entrance cost lowest.
Palm oil has achieved Ma Panmao piece since 2009 new low, main area anticipates slanting is for nothing on one hand reason, dollar of equestrian money exchange goes weak is on the other hand reason, but as the market to beautiful couplet store continue to add the anticipation of breath to be in produce a change, anticipate as the market American economy will see a top in next year, the strong possibility of the dollar cannot last.
Horse dish mixed in December in January of agreement drop greatly, of domestic P1901 drop, still concern with storage, future 3 months, the storage capacity pressure of producing area still can be compared big, but home shows level is storage capacity when pressure is the greatest, future 2 months, the stock of soya-bean oil will fall, pressure of oil storage capacity can drop somewhat.
Palm oil is short-term inside rebounding chance remains peace talks of Sino-US classics trade. In will for a long time look, the look forward to of palm oil price is firm rebound to still need to see source is main face occurrence change, or demand end, for instance biology derv, outside occurrence expect grow considerably. Otherwise, predicting palm oil will still keep weak force structure.
3, risk clew
1, relationship of Sino-US classics trade still is put in uncertainty, if Sino-US trade friction lasts longer, criterion market hopeful greets domestic grease to go the chance of inventory.
2, the change of Malaysia and Indonesian money. Since this year, the abidance of export price of producing area palm oil drops to also be mixed of producing area money devalue about, if the dollar begins to lose, can have bigger effect to the quote of palm oil.
3, the crop of Malaysia and Indonesian palm oil, inventory changes. Weather forecasts indication next year now probable it is climate of ell Ni Nuo, malaysia and Indonesian palm oil have the risk of reduction of output.
Article content offers reference only, carry oneself into city risk accordingly